Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
